Predictions for social media in 2019
Let’s look at some of your best suggestions, with a few of my own sprinkled in:
SOCIAL NETWORKS: Monte Thigpen predicts more paid social networks. The conventional wisdom holds that social networks only function if as many people as possible are on them. But it seems just as likely that the conventional wisdom is wrong....
Nik Sharma is among those who think 2019 will see a return to the group chat as our social network of choice. I said this myself on a recent episode of Recode Decode....
Dave Smith says “Apple or Google will try some sort of social network again.” We know former Facebook wunderkind Michael Sayman is cooking up some sort of social app at Google, so consider this prediction endorsed....
POLICY: Will Oremus says “Heads of state with autocratic leanings will use this year’s valid concerns about Facebook as an excuse to block access, nationalize it, or ban it from their country altogether.”...
Bret Carmichael predicts we’ll see steps taken toward national privacy regulation, hampered by party warfare....
FACEBOOK: Ken Goldsholl predicts a decline in usage in North America. Brandon Arvay predicts paid Facebook group memberships. I predict that the modest decline in users will make some of Facebook’s content moderation / foreign interference problems better in 2019....
And more. A listicle, and a Twitter survey, but good ideas to consider / pulse of what people are thinking.
h/t Al Tlön, G+ End Times:
https://plus.google.com/100626696284137029185/posts/577omyNRDBW
https://www.theverge.com/2018/12/15/18141595/social-media-predictions-2019-facebook-photo-leak-twitter-youtube
https://www.theverge.com/2018/12/15/18141595/social-media-predictions-2019-facebook-photo-leak-twitter-youtube
Let’s look at some of your best suggestions, with a few of my own sprinkled in:
SOCIAL NETWORKS: Monte Thigpen predicts more paid social networks. The conventional wisdom holds that social networks only function if as many people as possible are on them. But it seems just as likely that the conventional wisdom is wrong....
Nik Sharma is among those who think 2019 will see a return to the group chat as our social network of choice. I said this myself on a recent episode of Recode Decode....
Dave Smith says “Apple or Google will try some sort of social network again.” We know former Facebook wunderkind Michael Sayman is cooking up some sort of social app at Google, so consider this prediction endorsed....
POLICY: Will Oremus says “Heads of state with autocratic leanings will use this year’s valid concerns about Facebook as an excuse to block access, nationalize it, or ban it from their country altogether.”...
Bret Carmichael predicts we’ll see steps taken toward national privacy regulation, hampered by party warfare....
FACEBOOK: Ken Goldsholl predicts a decline in usage in North America. Brandon Arvay predicts paid Facebook group memberships. I predict that the modest decline in users will make some of Facebook’s content moderation / foreign interference problems better in 2019....
And more. A listicle, and a Twitter survey, but good ideas to consider / pulse of what people are thinking.
h/t Al Tlön, G+ End Times:
https://plus.google.com/100626696284137029185/posts/577omyNRDBW
https://www.theverge.com/2018/12/15/18141595/social-media-predictions-2019-facebook-photo-leak-twitter-youtube
https://www.theverge.com/2018/12/15/18141595/social-media-predictions-2019-facebook-photo-leak-twitter-youtube
I would never be desperate enough to use Facebook. Too many trolls. I'd rather use Google or nothing at all.
ReplyDeleteMore paid social networks? So the 1% will be hidden from me by a paywall. 99% will be excluded by the paywall.
ReplyDeleteIch werde das Datenkrake Zuckerberg Imperium [Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp] nicht mit meiner "Kopf~Zahl" und auch nicht mit meinen Daten unterstützen!!!
ReplyDeleteJA!, ich denke tatsächlich werden wir kein zweites G+ finden...
Wir werden uns etwas umgewöhnen...
Ich denke, jetzt kommt der Versuch, uns für alles doppelt bezahlen zu lassen!
Einmal mit unseren Daten und zusätzlich auch mit unserem Geld.
Aber es zeichnet sich am entfernten Horizont schon eine Änderung...
Denn die einzelnen Daten sind ein großes, begehrtes "Kapital".
Es kommen die Zeiten, da werden die Nutzer für ihre Datenspuren, von den Anbietern bezahlt. ;)
Ich denke, nach dem Jahr 2020 sind unsere Daten auch für uns selbst zu einem geldwerten "Kapital" geworden. ;)
I'm hope to see Steem/Steemit take off next year. It's suffering from the crypto slump, but there's a lot of app development going on and a good core community. It has some issues, so we shall see.
ReplyDeleteSo the future of social lies in its past.
ReplyDeleteThe next big thing: IRC!
Steve Clark "Slump"?
ReplyDeletethat Google/Sayman's thing is for mobile gamers (only).
ReplyDeleteI found it odd that article seemed to see only problems with extreme right wing ideas, but no mention of the need to censor anything from the left. And that’s the basic problem with censorship by liberals. They are always sure their side needs to be heard.
ReplyDeleteMike Kennedy - the objective of censorship is to suppress ideas that are broadly objectionable, as some extreme right-wing ideas like white supremacy. Are there, in your opinion, similarly objectionable left-wing ideas that should be suppressed? I think that is sometimes the stance of the religious right, for example in matters like abortion. But the distinction is usually framed as an issue of personal-behavior choice rather than advocacy against others (notwithstanding the claim of personhood of embryos - a not-so-widely-held belief, I'd say, in defense of the left on that matter).
ReplyDeleteJames Hollenbeck I'm also thinking a private BBS comeback isn't out of the question.
ReplyDeleteblanche nonken The main difference between a BBS and a website are:
ReplyDelete1. Simultaneous connections. BBSes were limited by physical phone lines, Internet by supportable connections. Former is usually single-to-double digits, latter is 10k - millions or more per server.
2. Throughput. Modems cap at 56K or so, practically. Even shitty Internet is generally 300 Mbps up, and can be 1-10 Gb for a decent colo. Far more if multi-homed and using a CDN. Then there's multicast.
Edward Morbius you are confused by what BBS means and have a basic misunderstanding that it requires modems. BBS is a bulletin board system. Modems were the prevalent technology available during their heyday, but the method of connection has nothing to do with the service itself. You can run a BBS on any type of connection.
ReplyDeleteJohn C. Reid Fair enough, thanks.
ReplyDeleteSo you'd consider, say, a PHPNuke site to be a BBS?
Cade Johnson how about female supremacy? Some feminist have very objectionable ideas.
ReplyDeleteBTW: I don't want anyone to censor anyone. The answer to bad speech is more speech.
In its strictest sense even the fediverse could qualify (I'll come back to this) as it lets individuals post things for the consumption of others. I don't know if I would count phpnuke or its predecessor aspnuke as they were modular blocks that one would use for creating their own singular websites. They were the beginnings of a CMS, but not so much a bulletin board. Ikonboard, the first forum software I remember hacking on (written in perl) later became all of the forum software we know and really only see used much anymore for community support of products. Back in "the day" I owned and ran a few that were just communities getting together the same way groups do on social networks now. The idea of a BBS then was a sharing community, today that is twisted into what we call a social network. To turn it back into a BBS you just need to make it owned and run by a person or small group. So in many ways the fediverse could be seen as the linking and sharing of a bunch of BBSes in the same way the internet is just the linking of a bunch of computers.
ReplyDeleteFolks, let's avoid unnecessary political discussion. If you want to debate merits of moderation, free-speech, and/or censorship, that's fine. If you want to get into what political factions do or don't support it, please start a thread elsewhere. I'll be happy to link to that here.
ReplyDeleteThanks.
phpBB and VBulletin won out, didn't they? Drupal nearly but that became more general purpose.
ReplyDeleteI would like a life free of snowflakes and Trumpflakes. But I don't want to "get used to" a solution. I have to use Outlook at work and for me, it's so painful I can hardly open it more than once a day.
ReplyDeleteEdward Morbius Thank you, Eduard. Opinions about political preferences and the political name calling are why I don't use Facebook. But unfortunately, it seems to be unavoidable, no matter which type of social media I use. I think I'll be taking a permanent break from social media after Google plus shuts down.
ReplyDeleteEdward Morbius In other words, "Stop feeding the trolls".
ReplyDeleteKevin Patrick I found the best way to make FB work without drama or trolls is to carefully control one's friend list, and use it for specific purposes. I use it for a small group of friends and family, for religious not political purposes, for jewelry work, and keep the joined communities to those with sharp, fast-acting moderators.
ReplyDeleteBy doing all that, I've made it useful. When I first used it, I used it like a variation on G+ and that was a huge mistake and I deleted that username. It isn't my sole connection either - I'll probably stick my political and other posts on Pluspora and Dreamwidth, archive my G+ on Blogger or some-such, and kill off anything that's no longer contributing to my life energy.
Tony Payson ... or annoying the mods.
ReplyDeleteAnd, to expand: the bigger point is that we've got ourselves enough of a problem here dealing with migration issues. Dragging politics into the discussion beyond the minimum extent necessary to address a point is a distraction and potential flash point we really cannot afford.
ReplyDeleteI'm well behind on the things I'd like to get done. And if you've enough free time that you can talk about politics, you might ask if there's anything else you could do to help. I've got a list.
(The TODO page of the Wiki is a good start, hint, hint: social.antefriguserat.de - TODO - PlexodusWiki
And outreach to G+ communities another.)
And nobody at all mentions the "Portal" into the next dimension of Facebook territory. #1 Big brother tracking your every move, literally (i.e., "Portal") => a return to the AOL, closed-circuit monopolies, on either the Facebook Network (phone coming soon), or the (paid) Google services, or out on the frontier solo, or "stick to phone & chat". My vision of where we're now poised. ;)
ReplyDeleteCade Johnson To be fair, some of us on the left do, in fact, hold that opinion -- it's not just a hard-right or "fundamentalist" view.
ReplyDeleteI'm still curious as to why the broad support for Blogger, which Google owns (or runs), as opposed to Wordpress.
ReplyDeleteSteve Vasta If you're curious, you just need to think about it a bit. Don't ask someone to explain the difference between maintenance and hosting costs versus free.
ReplyDeleteBob Calder Does Wordpress involve fees? The friend who recommended it didn't mention that.
ReplyDeleteSteve Vasta There are free and paid tiers.
ReplyDeleteYou get more if you pay for it. Or if you roll your own / admin your own.
There's an element of blind people and elephants here. Social is an attribute of platforms and not a complete descriptor. So "Group Chats" is just an example of a platform type that has some social attributes. Not the be all and end all of "Social Networking". And the elephant in the room is Facebook, because it covers 90% of all the bases, behind it's wall.
ReplyDeleteI don't believe Apple or Google will try again this year with anything big. But social functions in things like Youtube won't go away either.
I think we will get a return to personal blogs connected via Disqus for the 1% of people who want to self publish medium/long form text. So Wordpress and Blogger get another growth spurt. Quite a lot of these people will self host with a personal domain on managed server space from people like GoDaddy. Maybe this will result in a re-interest in feed readers. We might even finally work out how to consolidate comments.
All the open alternatives like Mastodon, Diaspora, Retroshare, Hubzilla, etc will remain small. 100s of thousands of users not 100s of millions.
Free WP has recently forced obligatory ads - which sours the first impression. Not all bloggers can, or wish to, pay. Currently WP users are battling with the Gutenberg updates - not happy bloggers.
ReplyDeletehttps://poetrypix.com/2018/12/15/giving-the-gutenberg-gallery-a-go/
Oh, I can deal with ads on WP -- at least as easily as I can deal with Google's owning Blogger. (Google has engaged in its share of heavy-handed censorship, eliminating blogs for "violating Terms of Service," i.e., posting pictures of shirtless men....)
ReplyDelete